Friday, October 30, 2009
Phoney GDP
read http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/market-cheers-over-ugly-gdp-report.html and get more details of how distorted these figures really are
The same example is valid for companies making up their numbers by offering kickbacks to customers, then subsequently registering prepaid revenue as revenue. This is exactly how the US government has distorted the figures recently with their cash for clunkers, and tax credit of 8k for new home owners (defined as one who hasnt buy a home in 3 years). That also means someone who has a home for 4 years and then buy a new home now, he would be eligible for it. Shifting necessary expenses from other areas, distorting the free market with kickbacks, creating malinvemtments and carrying forward future expenses to current inflating the figures.
If you are a new investor to the current market conditions, it definitely is a time where you have to be extremely careful, aware of the hype and news the media create, the false pictures the govt paint to you, and how your financial advisor might want to induce you into making an investment. Times are tough, but the tough will survive.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
EURUSD NY TIME
Right now it is midway through the JPY session and I am currently up 50 pips. Still looking for further upside to 1.49. Hopefully it reaches there and I can release my trade before end of the week and month. Then it would really reach a nice figure which is about 8% returns and 1k in profits. 
Another trade idea. EURUSD Long at 1.48 after a breakout of the trendline, with both declining trendline as support and fibbo lvl 50 as 2nd lvl support. Hopefully this carry through.
Looking at price targets which is 1.49 slightly below the 23.6% retracement lvl. and a second lvl target at 1.5050. SL is probably 1.475 slightly below the 50% retracement lvl. and below the dipping trendline.
Another trade idea. EURUSD Long at 1.48 after a breakout of the trendline, with both declining trendline as support and fibbo lvl 50 as 2nd lvl support. Hopefully this carry through.
Looking at price targets which is 1.49 slightly below the 23.6% retracement lvl. and a second lvl target at 1.5050. SL is probably 1.475 slightly below the 50% retracement lvl. and below the dipping trendline.
USDCHF 20091028
Its about time for me to start a more disciplined approach to trading. And the only way I can think of is to start a blog to keep track of my trades and how well I performed each trade individually and look back at my mistakes if there were any, where i did well and where I can work on better for my next trade.
So here is how this works. I see this as a good entry point based on my charts consisting of basic moving averages, strong uptrend line for 1 hour charts and support reconfirming itself twice at 10245. I decided to long this pair at 1.0253 with an initial target price at 1.03. My stop loss is somewhere below the 50% retracement at 25. SL is pretty tight at 28 pips and TP is about 50 pips away at 1.0295. near to the 68% retracement of the major downtrend for the daily charts. As it has already broken out of the daily downtrend. I am pretty sure this reversal is a longer uptrend move at least for the intermediate term. It is worth a try as there is minimum loss and pretty much a higher move behind this pattern, especially after testing 1.0247 3 times in 3 diff candles for the 4h chart
Might look to play it thru to the 100% retracement lvl if the pattern is right eventually. for now this is what it looks like
Well the end result didn't go the way I want. markets turn, USD rally came to an end. Prudent management cut the loss to a bare 29 pips. Still cannot believe after retesting the support 4 times it still broke. Well, I cannot control the market. I can control My own profit and loss
So here is how this works. I see this as a good entry point based on my charts consisting of basic moving averages, strong uptrend line for 1 hour charts and support reconfirming itself twice at 10245. I decided to long this pair at 1.0253 with an initial target price at 1.03. My stop loss is somewhere below the 50% retracement at 25. SL is pretty tight at 28 pips and TP is about 50 pips away at 1.0295. near to the 68% retracement of the major downtrend for the daily charts. As it has already broken out of the daily downtrend. I am pretty sure this reversal is a longer uptrend move at least for the intermediate term. It is worth a try as there is minimum loss and pretty much a higher move behind this pattern, especially after testing 1.0247 3 times in 3 diff candles for the 4h chart
Might look to play it thru to the 100% retracement lvl if the pattern is right eventually. for now this is what it looks like
Well the end result didn't go the way I want. markets turn, USD rally came to an end. Prudent management cut the loss to a bare 29 pips. Still cannot believe after retesting the support 4 times it still broke. Well, I cannot control the market. I can control My own profit and loss
Monday, October 26, 2009
Pure insanity
I think the markets are malfunctioning due to too much intervention and interferences by the central banks and government. Such interferences causes the free market to malfunction, act in a manner which it wouldn't have if subject to free market conditions.
I can foresee a significant dip in US equity markets coming soon. Tomorrow marks the 80th anniversary of the Great Depression Black Tuesday. Apparently mainstream economists, who follow the Keynesian school of thought are still HOPING the stimulus package would help bring the dead economy back to life. What is happening in the equity markets is the result of cheap money driving up another bubble, just like what happened in 2000 where the tech bubble busted, and low rates follow, driving up housing prices. The entire history is just repeating itself and central bankers have not learnt from previous mistakes from the previous bubble created. Making money cheaper and cheaper doesn't improve your standard of living.
10 reasons why this is not a recovery
1. unemployment figures are not improving and more people are even dropping out of the workforce due to giving up totally on finding work.
2. Consumers have stopped spending and lost confidence in the business recovery.
3. Business can only improve their bottomline through cost cutting measures and not through increasing coverage or business development.
4. Advertisements on television has dropped significantly with more program airtime.
5. Companies have spent less on R&D and focused on cost cutting measures, such as part time employment, reducing headcount, selling off assets to cover for losses. This includes countries such as UK, selling their railway, airport and state land.
6. Shipping has overcapacity until ships are parked offshore
7. Airlines have excess capacity and have reduced their frequency of flights and have sent some of their airplanes to desserts in US to park idle.
8. Luxury goods chains have seen significant cutback in spending, e.g. branded handbags, swiss watches
9. Holidays have dipped and people are more interested in finding out how to protect themselves in this recession than spending money to travel
10. last of all, many people are still finding it hard to even get promotion, move on to other openings as openings are few and limited, mainly temporary or contract, with rolling option. Even Citi is paying peanuts for their staff.
This looks more like a depression than a recession. For now, I am just thankful I still have my job
I can foresee a significant dip in US equity markets coming soon. Tomorrow marks the 80th anniversary of the Great Depression Black Tuesday. Apparently mainstream economists, who follow the Keynesian school of thought are still HOPING the stimulus package would help bring the dead economy back to life. What is happening in the equity markets is the result of cheap money driving up another bubble, just like what happened in 2000 where the tech bubble busted, and low rates follow, driving up housing prices. The entire history is just repeating itself and central bankers have not learnt from previous mistakes from the previous bubble created. Making money cheaper and cheaper doesn't improve your standard of living.
10 reasons why this is not a recovery
1. unemployment figures are not improving and more people are even dropping out of the workforce due to giving up totally on finding work.
2. Consumers have stopped spending and lost confidence in the business recovery.
3. Business can only improve their bottomline through cost cutting measures and not through increasing coverage or business development.
4. Advertisements on television has dropped significantly with more program airtime.
5. Companies have spent less on R&D and focused on cost cutting measures, such as part time employment, reducing headcount, selling off assets to cover for losses. This includes countries such as UK, selling their railway, airport and state land.
6. Shipping has overcapacity until ships are parked offshore
7. Airlines have excess capacity and have reduced their frequency of flights and have sent some of their airplanes to desserts in US to park idle.
8. Luxury goods chains have seen significant cutback in spending, e.g. branded handbags, swiss watches
9. Holidays have dipped and people are more interested in finding out how to protect themselves in this recession than spending money to travel
10. last of all, many people are still finding it hard to even get promotion, move on to other openings as openings are few and limited, mainly temporary or contract, with rolling option. Even Citi is paying peanuts for their staff.
This looks more like a depression than a recession. For now, I am just thankful I still have my job
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
